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950 out of 9,900 women without breast cancer will also get a positive mammography. Maybe you see the theorem, and you understand the theorem, and you can use the theorem, but you can't understand why your friends and/or research colleagues seem to think it's the secret of the universe. Maybe you understand it in theory, but every time you try to apply it in practice you get mixed up trying to remember the difference between belongs in the numerator or the denominator.A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening.What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer? Is that a real number, or an urban legend based on an Internet poll? See Casscells, Schoenberger, and Grayboys 1978; Eddy 1982; Gigerenzer and Hoffrage 1995; and many other studies.